And the Nominees Are…

2009 Emmy Nominations

I’ll be here in just a bit with some thorough analysis of these nominees, but for now here’s the basic facts for your perusal.

And the nominees for the 61st Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are…

Outstanding Drama Series

• Big Love
• Breaking Bad
• Damages
• Dexter
• House
  
• Lost
• Mad Men
  

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

• Glenn Close (Damages)
  
• Mariska Hargitay (Law and Order: SVU)
  
• Sally Field (Brothers & Sisters)
  
• Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)
  
• Holly Hunter (Saving Grace)
  
• Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)
  

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

• Gabriel Byrne (In Treatment)
  
• Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
  
• Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
  
• Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
  
• Hugh Laurie (House)
  
• Simon Baker (The Mentalist)
  

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Entourage
• Family Guy
• Flight of the Conchords
• How I Met Your Mother
• The Office
• 30 Rock
• Weeds
  

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

• Jemaine Clement (Flight of the Conchords)
  
• Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
  
• Steve Carell (The Office)
  
• Charlie Sheen (Two and a Half Men)
  
• Tony Shalhoub (Monk)
  
• Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
  

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

• Christina Applegate (Samantha Who?)
  
• Toni Colette (United States of Tara)
  
• Tina Fey (30 Rock)
  
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus (New Adventures…Christine)
  
• Mary-Louise Parker (Weeds)
  
• Sarah Silverman (The Sarah Silverman Program)
  

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

• William Shatner (Boston Legal)
• Christian Clemenson (Boston Legal)
• Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
• William Hurt (Damages)
  
• Michael Emerson (Lost)
• John Slattery (Mad Men)
  

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

• Rose Byrne (Damages)
• Hope Davis (In Treatment)
• Dianne Wiest (In Treatment)
• Cherry Jones (24)
• Sandra Oh (Grey’s Anatomy)
• Chandra Wilson (Grey’s Anatomy)
  

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

• Kevin Dillon (Entourage)
• Neil Patrick Harris (How I Met Your Mother)
• Rainn Wilson (The Office)
• Tracy Morgan (30 Rock)
• Jack McBrayer (30 Rock)
• Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men)
  

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

• Kristen Chenoweth (Pushing Daisies)
• Amy Poehler (Saturday Night Live)
• Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live)
• Elizabeth Perkins (Weeds)
• Jane Krakowski (30 Rock)
• Vanessa Williams (Ugly Betty)J
  

Guest Actor in a Drama Series

• Ed Asner (CSI: NY)
• Ted Danson (Damages)
• Jimmy Smits (Dexter)
• Ernest Borgnine (ER)
• Michael J. Fox (Rescue Me)
  

Guest Actress in a Drama Series

• Sharon Lawrence (Grey’s Anatomy)
• Ellen Burstyn, Brenda Blethyn, Carol Burnett (Law & Order: SVU)
• CCH Pounder (No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency)
  

Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

• Beau Bridges (Desperate Housewives)
• Justin Timberlake (SNL)
• Steve Martin, Jon Hamm, Alan Alda (30 Rock)
  

Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

• Christina Baranski (The Big Bang Theory)
• Gena Rowlands (Monk)
• Betty White (My Name is Earl)
• Tina Fey (SNL)
• Jennifer Aniston, Elaine Stritch (30 Rock)
  

Reality Competition Program

• The Amazing Race
• American Idol
• Dancing with the Stars
• Project Runway
• Top Chef
  

Reality Host

• Phil Keoghan (The Amazing Race)
  
• Ryan Seacrest (American Idol)
  
• Tom Bergeron (Dancing with the Stars)
  
• Heidi Klum (Project Runway)
  
• Jeff Probst (Survivor)
  
• Padma Lakshmi and Tom Colicchio (Top Chef)
  

Writing for a Drama Series

• Lost – “The Incident”
• Mad Men – “A Night to Remember,” “Six Month Leave,” “The Jet Set,” “Meditations in an Emergency”

Writing for a Comedy Series

• Flight of the Conchords – “Prime Minister”
• 30 Rock – “Reunion,” “Apollo, Apollo,” “Mamma Mia,” “Kidney Now!”
  

Directing for a Drama Series

• Battlestar Galactica – “Daybreak Part 2″ (Michael Rymer)
• Boston Legal – “Made in China/Last Call” (Bill D’Elia)
• Damages – “Trust Me” (Todd A. Kessler)
• ER – “And in the End” (Rod Holcomb)
• Mad Men – “The Jet Set” (Phil Abraham)
  

Directing for a Comedy Series

• Entourage – “Tree Trippers” (Julian Farino)
• Flight of the Conchords – “The Tough Brets” (James Bobin)
  
• The Office – “Stress Relief” (Jeff Blitz)
• 30 Rock – “Apollo, Apollo” (Millicent Shelton)
• 30 Rock – “Reunion” (Beth McCarthy)
• 30 Rock – “Generalissimo” (Todd Holland)
  

Outstanding Variety Program

• The Colbert Report
• The Daily Show
• Late Show with David Letterman
• Real Time with Bill Maher
• Saturday Night Live
  

“Pilot” and “Resonance”

July 7th & July 14th, 2009

I fell asleep watching the Warehouse 13 pilot.

It’s a true story. I was there, trying to get through it, but I was exhausted from being up early and the pilot wasn’t really engaging me on any level. It wasn’t that it was bad, or that it actually put me to sleep (I consciously paused it before conking out moments later), but the fact remains that there was something about Warehouse 13 that wasn’t really connecting with me.

However, upon finishing the Pilot last night, and digging into “Resonance” this afternoon, I can say quite emphatically that the show is more than capable of keeping me awake. No, it’s not a replacement for Battlestar Galactica by any means, but it doesn’t try to be. What it represents is Reaper with less comedy, Fringe without the mythology, and every crime procedural you’ve ever seen with a sense of whimsy that’s often sorely lacking on those shows. It has no grandiose ideas about its position in the television world: what it delivers is what it sets out to achieve, a light-hearted but nonetheless resonant piece of dramedic television.

And in the middle of summer, when television often feels like a wasteland, a weekly trip into the depths of Warehouse 13 is something I’m already looking forward to, if not particularly obsessing over.

The problem with the Warehouse 13 pilot is that it has to do too many things, and its two-hour running time actually hinders the most important one: providing entertainment. In terms of getting to know the characters, and providing some flashy scenes, the crazy Italian comb sequence offered some potential, but it was a bit too abstract a story to tell over the two hour running time. It felt like it was being dragged out, and while I understand the need to introduce the premise of the Warehouse as well as the bureacracy involved it didn’t seem as if the procedural plotline really did enough to connect with all of that in terms of pacing. The pilot just showed a lack of care in a few areas, a sign of a show struggling to come to terms with its own identity.

In the end, though, I thought it did a good job of letting its archetypal characters (By the book hard-nosed female meets impulsive ladies man) show a little bit more about themselves, and more importantly started to build up a sense of trust between them. Myka’s past, where an operation in Denver screaming for a flashback episode resulted in the death of her boyfriend, and Pete’s ability to sense when something is about to go wrong are both things that help contribute to a sense of unease around these characters. Any scenario where someone “hand picks” their team can feel contrived, but there’s a sense that Myka’s past combined with her ability makes her a strong partner for Pete’s slightly supernatural ability. I’m still not sure how, precisely, the ability to have a magic tea kettle appear in your hand is a sign, but there’s a definite bit of light mythology in the “special like Pete” department.

The one thing the Pilot doesn’t get a chance to do is to make Warehouse 13 seem like a fun place to be: I’m enjoying Saul Rubinek, and his slightly off-kilter but in control demeanor is certainly fun to watch, but the pilot never quite brings Myka and Pete around to why the Warehouse could be something more. That’s what it was so strange when the pilot’s “cliffhanger,” when Myka is left considering if she’ll stay, was ignored entirely in “Resonance” – I discovered after the fact that the episodes were aired out of order, which at least explains that. Overall, though, the Pilot seemed like it was dragging 90 minutes of material into two hours, and the show was still a bit bi-polar coming out of it.

I felt “Resonance,” though, was much more consistent on those levels. I love stuff like the Lewis Carroll mirror ping pong, with Pete playing a version of himself. Those were the kinds of discoveries that the pilot needed but couldn’t really engage in because Pete and Myka needed to want to leave right up until the point they discover the comb is actually real. Here, they don’t need to worry about that since they’re both firm believers in the existence of such objects, and can take things for granted in favour of some comedy. I think that this transition would have felt considerably more natural with an episode in between, but that doesn’t make the shift any less welcome.

I also think the show deserves credit for giving a decent amount of pathos and threat with its “Case of the Week.” The comb one seemed a bit over the top, but this one was able to overcome a clunky log line (”World’s happiest pop song paralyzes bank-goers”) to feel legitimately cool, which should really be the show’s goal. Fringe learned a lesson as time when on that its own supernatural cases were at their best when they felt unique or had some sort of aesthetic element. The record player structure was a really clever way of handling things here, and the scene where they came into the FBI with the record was a really fun piece of staging. The storyline also worked because the clues made sense (the perfume smell emerging from Pete’s overly touchy post-song activity, the echo theory foreshadowed at the first bank visit, etc.), and because the conclusion gave the storyline an additional level of pathos.

I’d like to think it’s that ending and not Tricia Helfer’s pretty minimal guest appearance that really drove this episode to be showed second as opposed to third. Helfer was fine, as usual, but it was pretty much a one-note role and she couldn’t do much with it. Instead, the ending was what really struck me: the goal of Warehouse 13 is to neutralize the threat of these items, not to find justice in the traditional sense. So, when it’s revealed that the bank robberies were just being done in order to get enough money to buy back the composer’s collection from the sketchy agent who stole it, Pete makes the decision not to call the FBI, and to chance that the FBI won’t find them. While Myka’s drama with her father seemed a bit too much of a cliche, especially since we haven’t seen her father yet, I thought the story within the episode was actually quite effective in its own right, so I can’t say the show doesn’t know how to do it.

I want the show to embrace its fun side a bit more, and I think there’s potential they’ve yet to try to tap into, but the show’s fun early on. It’s a summer show, with a solid is unremarkable cast who has been given an enjoyable universe to inhabit. I’m sticking around for a while, and will stop by with a post should an episode prove particularly remarkable in some fashion.

Cultural Observations

• I’ve got a few issues with the show’s basic premise (like why people don’t raise more eyebrows about why the Secret Service is involved in these affairs), so I’m curious to what degree the show tests these questions in perhaps that missing second episode, or in future ones.
• t was a bit dry and boring here, but the fact that Michael Hogan (Saul Tigh, Battlestar Galactica) is playing Myka’s father makes me extremely excited for the storyline’s future.
• I like the work here in terms of integrating Dickenson into the Warehouse 13 universe – it’s a really simple storyline, but he’s a genuine resource for the series in terms of expanding its bureaucray when C.C.H. Pounder isn’t around.
• The identity of the hacker, and the strange nature of the flash that Saul saw, would seem to indicate there’s a mythology here the show isn’t yet tapping into. It’s not quite on the level of Fringe, but I think that’s for the best, as it better fits the show’s light-hearted style.

The Tale of the Tape

July 15th, 2009

Heading into tomorrow morning’s nominations (5:30 Pacific Time, so 8:30 Eastern and 9:30 for me in the Atlantic time zone), there are a few certainties, and a few question marks. I talked before about the uncertainty of the popular vote, which places a show like Lost somewhere in between an equilibrium of popular shows like House and Grey’s Anatomy and more critical/industry favourites like Mad Men and Breaking Bad. Here, it’s tie to take a look at some of the big stories that could emerge from the nominations, as well as a glimpse at some of the categories that I didn’t get to during the week. So, let’s get the Tale of the Tape.

Mad Men = The New Sopranos?

Last year, Mad Men racked up an Emmy for Drama Series, a nomination for Lead Actor and Best Supporting Actor, and five other statues (including Writing for Matthew Weiner). The question now really comes down to just how much the show’s second season is going to increase those odds. Chances are that one of the show’s two leading women will break through, now much more household names when it comes to the show’s success, and there’s room for more supporting players at well. If it follows the Sopranos pattern, it could break through big – if it, however, gets held back by being on AMC, it could end up with roughly the same nominations.

The Year of CBS?

It may be unlikely, with far more popular shows in terms of Hollwood and the Emmys in the category, but How I Met Your Mother is at the point where its breakout year might be upon us. Neil Patrick Harris is hosting, the show’s ratings have solidified it as a hit in its own right, and it is no longer in fear of cancellation which makes it seem like the kind of show that will be around for a while. It has to compete with stablemate The Big Bang Theory, which has Jim Parsons breaking out in a big way, and Two and a Half Men, but that two more legitimate Emmy contenders than the network had a year ago (and, in my mind, two more than it should have, but that’s neither here nor there). Combine with a chance for The Mentalist’s Simon Baker, and CBS is maybe not just the people’s network anymore.

Breaking Bad Breaking Through?

Last year, Bryan Cranston won in a bit of a shocker in the Lead Actor category for his work on the other AMC drama, Breaking Bad. Many have taken that win and viewed it as a sign that the show, which got even better in its second season, has a chance of breaking through in its own right. I’m of the mind that it will, but Cranston’s win was as much for his lack of a win for Malcolm in the Middle than it was for his brave performance, so it will be interesting to see if the show can join Cranston in the Emmy race. It has the benefit of having aired fairly recently, but it’s yet to be seen if it can break through on the popular vote.

The Final Chance for Battlestar Galactica

A real chance of breaking into the Drama Series race, or the various acting categories, just isn’t in the cards; Battlestar Galactica may have had an amazing finale, and its actors may have stepped up more than ever before, but in a popular vote competition it just isn’t going to get the support it needs. Mary McDonnell is going to get pushed out of her category, although remains a long shot candidate if things get really weird, but the show’s real chance lies in both writing and direction. There’s probably room in those categories for Ronald D. Moore and Michael Rymer, as they’ve been represented before, so it will be interesting to see if they can pick up those nods. They’ll also dominate the special effects categories, with the Visual Effects team easily picking up their third Emmy.

HBO’s New Hope

After years of struggling to piece together a drama contender, HBO has finally found one. The question isn’t whether True Blood can challenge at the Emmys, where I think Paquin will make it into the Lead Actress race despite the competition, but whether it’s being taken seriously enough as a show to break through into Drama Series. It’s one thing for a former Oscar winner to find a spot in the category, but it’s quite another for a show that doesn’t always take itself seriously and that remains more a counterpart to Twilight culturally speaking rather than some sort of highbrow equivalent to really break through in a category dominated by pretty serious fare. If the nominations were going on now, where hype is higher than ever, I might change my tune, but I don’t see it breaking through.

Guest Star Guesswork

It’s impossible to know just where these guest star nominations will come from, but rest assured that the comedy side will be dominated by 30 Rock (Salma Hayek, Aniston, Mullaly, Stritch, etc. for Actress, and Martin, Alda, Hamm, Arnett, Dinklage, etc.). And, there’s no chance of Tina Fey not picking up a nomination for her performance as Sarah Palin on Saturday Night Live (in fact, she’ll likely win). The real question here, though, is who breaks through outside of those restrictions. After a great but short guest stint last year, Amy Ryan returns this year with more material and a much better chance of snagging a nomination for her work as Holly Flax on The Office, while I’d love to see Kristen Bell pick up a nomination for her stint on Party Down. As for actors, I’d be fine with Albert Brooks picking up a nod for Weeds, and I’d love to see Idris Elba sneak in for The Office. Expect to see at least Kathryn Joosten, and perhaps Swoosie Kurtz, pick up nods for Desperate Housewives as well.

On the drama side, meanwhile, expect for maybe even all of the nominees for Actress to come from Grey’s Anatomy and Law & Order: SVU (with performers including Kathy Baker, Mary McDonnell, Bernadette Peters, Sharon Lawrence for the former, and Carol Burnett, Ellen Burstyn and Brenda Blethyn for the latter). Outside of them, the others with a shot are Susan Sarandon and Julianna Margulies from E.R., which in its final season could pick up some nods here for old time’s sake. As for Actors, Ted Danson seems a safe bet for Damages, while Clooney and his other former castmates could grab some spots from E.R. for their late series returns. Eric Stoltz is also a good bet from Grey’s Anatomy for a creepy turn, while Jon Voigt should get in for his work on 24. As for my own personal preferences, I’d love to see Mark Moses get in for his work as Duck Phillips on Mad Men, and either Scott Porter or Gaius Charles getting nominated for Friday Night Lights would be shock and please me.

Writing and Directing

These categories are always hard to predict, but expect for Mad Men and 30 Rock to dominate here. Mad Men has a number of strong contenders in both categories, but expect Matthew Weiner to pick up nominations in both. As far as pilots go on the drama side, Anthony Minghella could pick up a posthumous nomination for directing the No. 1 Ladies’ Detective Agency pilot, and Alan Ball could pick up a nomination for both writing and directing True Blood. I’d also expect, as noted above, Michael Rymer and Ron Moore to pick up nominations for Battlestar Galactica. The other shows that should contend are Fringe, Grey’s Anatomy, House and Breaking Bad.

As for Comedy, 30 Rock and The Office should dominate the nominations, but United States of Tara seems like a freshman series that could appeal to voters, and there’s a good chance of Flight of the Conchords competing again where it was nominated for its first season in both of these categories. How I Met Your Mother could also contend in both categories, but it depends on if they find room for a multi-camera sitcom. Otherwise, the one choice that could make it is the Scrubs finale, submitted in the Writing category.

Variety’s the Spice of Life?

There’s some big questions when it comes to the Variety categories this year: with individual performance no longer in existence, this means that Stephen Colbert (who always does well in that category, despite never winning it) is in a position to perhaps pick up his first Emmy for Variety Series, which the Daily Show has won since 2004. It’s still more likely that Colbert’s staff will have a better shot in the Writing category, but this could be his year. The bigger question is what happens with Saturday Night Live, which with the election had a truly breakout year and should certainly challenge. Nominations will bring no surprises, but they’re very open categories this year.

The TV Movie/Miniseries Side of Things

I don’t have the time or patience to really predict or consider all of this, but I know this much: HBO’s Grey Gardens (with Barrymore and Lange) will dominate the TV Movie side of things, while Ed Burns and David Simon are guaranteed their first major Emmy nomination for Best Miniseries with Generation Kill. I’d love to see some of the latter’s actors break through, but it seems unlikely with British actors slumming it on TV around.

Reality Check

No surprises here: nominees should be the same as last year, with Top Chef and Project Runway joining six-time winner The Amazing Race, American Idol and Dancing with the Stars on the ballot. I’d love to see So You Think You Can Dance? sneak in as a surprise, but it just isn’t going to happen. As far as Reality Host goes, though, I’d again like to see Cat Deeley break into the category, but chances are that a breakthrough would be the arena of The Amazing Race’s Phil Keoghan before the tall and lovely Ms. Deeley.

Want to read all of Cultural Learnings’ Emmy Predictions? You can find all of our coverage of the Emmys by visiting our Emmy Awards category, and we’ll have analysis of the nominees in the morning.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Predictions

There is very little chance that 30 Rock won’t be running away with this category, which means that the other nominees aren’t going to really matter at the end of the day. However, there are a few shows in a position to make a big splash should they be able to break through into the category, especially for a couple of CBS sitcoms looking for their moment in the spotlight.

One can presume, right off the bat, that 30 Rock, The Office and Two and a Half Men will be garnering nominations based on popular vote, having been clear favourites of voters over the past number of years. The other three spots, however, could go in different directions. Last year, Entourage, and Curb Your Enthusiasm rounded out the category, but with the unpredictability of the popular vote combined with Enthusiasm taking a breather, the door is open for some new faces (especially with an extra nominee).

Only one of them, of course, is actually new: Showtime’s United States of Tara was the only real buzzworthy comedy debut of the year (Parks and Recreation proving too mixed to make an impact), driven by a strong (and likely Emmy-nominated) lead performance from Toni Colette and the Hollywood swagger of Diablo Cody. The show has a shot at making the category, but it will likely have to fight it out with stablemates Weeds, which has been close in the past, and Californication. Still, it feels like there’s room in the category for a new show, and Tara might just be it.

The other two shows with a real shot are How I Met Your Mother and The Big Bang Theory. HIMYM has the rising starpower of Neil Patrick Harris and four strong seasons in its favour, while The Big Bang Theory is slightly more populist and comes from the much revered Chuck Lorre. I’d say that Jim Parsons will be the latter’s breakthrough, so if one of them finds its way into the category my money’s on HIMYM. It’s a definite long shot, but this is around the time that Scrubs broke into the category and I think fears over its premature cancellation are gone, which could allow it to gain some more credibility.

HBO, meanwhile, is likely to stay in the category with stale but apparently popular Entourage, and it’s impossible to discount Family Guy, submitting into the Comedy Series category with a big campaign and trying to overcome the stigma facing animation. ABC would like to think that Ugly Betty and Desperate Housewives could benefit here, but the shows have disconnected from the Emmy base for good outside of their performers. All in all, it’s really going to come down to just how popular the popular vote skews, which is a variable we can’t really predict properly at all.

Predictions for Outstanding Comedy Series

• 30 Rock
• Entourage
• How I Met Your Mother
• The Office
• Two and a Half Men
• United States of Tara

Outstanding Drama Series

Predictions

Last year, the big story in the Outstanding Drama Series category was the presence of three shows that broke down barriers for cable: Showtime’s Dexter was the channel’s first ever nominee in the category, and both FX’s Damages and eventual winner AMC’s Mad Men were the first ever basic cable series to make their way into television’s biggest category.

This year, the story is a little bit more muddled, as the return of a popular vote-only category raises questions about whether Dexter and Damages can make it back into the big dance competing against the juggernauts like House and Grey’s Anatomy. For shows like Damages and perennial nominee Boston Legal, that relied on showy episodes to sway the blue-ribbon panels, their popular support remains untested, which could lead to some surprises.

Mad Men is a lock to return to defend its title after a strong second season, while Lost’s popular support and the quality of its fifth season should be enough to grab a nomination. The real suspense will come down to whether some shows sitting at the edges might be able to make it in: Breaking Bad had a strong second season, aired very recently, and Bryan Cranston won Best Actor last year and is likely to be nominated again; The Wire broke the Top 10 with its final season, so perhaps The Shield could do the same; new shows True Blood and The Mentalist try to overcome mixed critical responses with their impressive ratings; 24 has been out of the running for a year, and even then was pretty well out of the running with its drop in quality.

Personally, my heart is with Battlestar Galactica, which is in its final year of Emmy eligibility. However, that’s a long shot that’s quite tough to predict when it’s going to come down to popular vote, and until my heart starts giving out Emmy Awards I guess Ronald D. Moore and company are out of luck in the big dance.

Predictions for Outstanding Drama Series

• Breaking Bad
• Dexter
• Grey’s Anatomy
• House
• Lost
• Mad Men

“Trust and Consequence”

July 13th, 2009

The truth of the matter is that Better Off Ted’s summer ratings have been less than impressive, and that the consequence is that the show likely isn’t making much of an impression heading into its second season in the fall. However, right now, I don’t care. The real truth of the matter is that the show remains absolutely fantastic, with a laugh ratio that most comedies can only dream of.

“Trust and Consequence” was another example of the show’s ability to take one idea and run with it. This wasn’t an episode that was about a particular series of plotlines, but rather one event that creates logical consequences that are all quite humorous, with jokes piling onto jokes in a way that makes the conclusion where everything comes to a speedy end feel both clever and like leaving a great story while its quality is still high.

I don’t have too much to say, but some thoughts after the jump.

The sequence in this episode that really stuck out for me is the Deposition sequence. I love depositions in general, especially when you see them happening to different people: the Office got some great material from Michael’s deposition, primarily because it brings out both a lot of nervous energy or the chance to take complete control. In Veronica’s case, it’s a chance for her to exhibit her ability to completely withhold all emotion and information. And yet, that’s when her characters is the funniest. It was an amazing sequence: “Ouch,” “Cleverly,” and everything else was a really strong example of the way that Veronica somehow remains a less is more character. Many other shows would try to broaden her character, or feature her more often, but the show knows how to use Portia de Rossi perfectly.

And then you have Ted’s deposition, where the two lawyers literally fall in love with him on the spot – watching the female lawyer melt like putty was perhaps a bit too simple, but when the male lawyer comes into it, and when they both “awww” when he mentions his daughter, it just plain works. What makes Ted work as a straight man is that the show knows when the funny thing is his efforts to be funny failing and when he’s inadvertantly creating reactions that are funny for us as an audience. His earnestness is often a bit too, well, earnest, but when played right the character brings a lot of comedy into the show, plus some heart when it comes to his relationship with Linda and his daughter.

Combine it all with the clever flashback structure (I especially liked the quick “Huh?” with the 60s outfits for Phil and Lem), as well as the greatness of the entire drug scheme (selling the copier, the green eggs and ham rhymes at the press conferences, everything else), and it was just a really fun half hour of television – if you’re not watching this show yet, you better be doing so by the time September rolls around.

Cultural Observations

• Thinking aloud here, I wonder if ABC has any plans on releasing the DVD set at any point in the fall. This seems like the kind of show that could get some recommendations through that method, plus word of mouth, especially if it ended up on NetFlix Watch Instantly or something similar. I’m not sure if the show is on Hulu yet (Other ABC shows are), but again, there’s a lot of ways they could get the word out about the show without high ratings for these episodes.
• I don’t know what bit of comedy I liked best from Phil and Lem – was it the “The guys. The girl” line about MIT, or the fact that Phil’s rugby team was named the Syphilitic Conquistadors? OrDe maybe their shark week conversation? I don’t even know.
• The entire ideal compromiser runner really reminded me of Pushing Daisies and, well, that’s a damn good thing. Don’t kill this too, America/ABC.
• One of my favourite things about the show is how it’s like there’s other shows happening that we’re not seeing: the lawyers’ brainstorming reasons the perfume would attract hornets (”the women had it coming” was trumped by”Bee Hive Hairdos” for me) could have made an episode in and of itself.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Predictions

Like with Lead Actor, chances are there are going to be a lot of familiar faces in this category, as veteran actresses in showy roles are unlikely to disappear from last year’s ballot. The difference here, though, is a bit more uncertainty in terms of how the popular vote will fall and who will benefit from the extra spot and someone potentially dropping from the category.

Glenn Close, who won last year for Damages, is a lock for another nomination, as are Sally Field and Kyra Sedgwick who will remain perennial nominees at this stage. This leaves three spots, which could go in a number of directions. The safest bet may be to give two of them to last year’s nominees, Mariska Hargitay and Holly Hunter. However, I have an odd feeling about Hunter, and Hargitay is one who I think benefited more from screeners than she may have from the popular vote, which creates some opportunity for some new blood.

While that may seem like a logical segue into another actress, I think the most likely individual is January Jones. Mad Men’s ladies were entirely unrepresented last year, a sin considering how great they are, but this year one would expect either Jones or Elisabeth Moss to break through. The reason Jones is the obvious choice is that Moss really had her big storyline in the first season; she was great in the second season, and part of me prefers her to Jones, but there is something iconic about Betty Draper and her connection with her husband (guaranteed nominee Jon Hamm) that is likely to pull voters towards her.

Also circling is Mary McDonnell, whose portrayal of President Laura Roslin on Battlestar Galactica reportedly made the Top 10 last year. It’s a showy role, and SciFi did their best to remind voters that this is their last chance to nominate her for her stellar work. At the same time, it’s still a science fiction series, and the emotion of her final scenes in “Daybreak” or her anger in “The Hub” are more powerful for fans than voters.

Speaking of fans, Anna Paquin has to be considered a contender; no, winning the Golden Globe doesn’t mean anything when it’s a Golden Globe, but she’s a former Oscar winner (if you haven’t seen The Piano, do so immediately) and the show has garnered a real following and has HBO backing its campaign. The show’s a bit too campy in order to break into the series race, but Paquin’s character shows some skin, has an accent (a bad one, but still), and has highly emotional storylines – that’s a solid recipe for Emmy.

Also on the periphery: Jeanne Tripplehorn, who is now the only of Big Love’s wives to be submitting in the category, Patricia Arquette, who continues to garner attention for newly-relocated Medium, and Jill Scott, whose Botswana-shot No. 1 Ladies’ Detective Agency was well-received critically and where she has a highly dramatic, engaging performance that could sneak in under the radar. I’m aware that she’s a definite long shot compared to former Oscar nominees slumming in television, but sometimes doing predictions I get bored and want to go out on a limb.

Predictions for Lead Actress in a Drama

• Glenn Close (”Damages”)
• Sally Field (”Brothers & Sisters”)
• January Jones (”Mad Men”)
• Anna Paquin (”True Blood”)
• Kyra Sedgwick (”The Closer”)
• Jill Scott (”No. 1 Ladies’ Detective Agency”)

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Predictions

This is not a good time to be a lead actor in a drama series.

All of last year’s six nominees are back this year, and almost all of them are likely to return. Bryan Cranston followed up his surprise victory for Breaking Bad’s first season (a nomination driven likely by the fact he was never honoured for Malcolm in the Middle) with an even more impressive second season. Hugh Laurie continues to single-handedly elevate House from its procedural roots, driving the show’s popularity and thus his chances at a nomination. Michael C. Hall is still a hero and a serial killer, a duality he pulls off better than anyone could have imagined. Jon Hamm, whose Don Draper was a complex man of mystery in Mad Men’s first season, became even more complicated in the show’s second season. And Gabriel Byrne, who managed a nod for his grueling In Treatment schedule in the show’s first season, is back again with what is generally considered an even stronger second outing. These five are going to be there again, and that leaves little room for new blood.

The one nominee from last year who could be in trouble is James Spader. His nominations (and wins) were always baffling to critics and viewers alike, and the general theory is that his epic, David E. Kelley-penned speeches were Emmy bait in their finest form. However, this year, Boston Legal has been off the air for months and there is no panel where that speech will be seen – he’s operating entirely on popular vote, and he could be ousted from the category faster than you can quote a Supreme Court precedent.

Waiting in the wings is a tough crowd: former nominee Kiefer Sutherland is back in the race, Michael Chiklis is in his final year of eligibility for The Shield, Kyle Chandler made the Top 10 last year for Friday Night Lights, or Big Love could break through and give Bill Paxton a shot. And, in the longest of long shots, Edward James Olmos is like Battlestar Galactica itself in his last year of eligibility, while Matthew Fox had a slightly lighter season on Lost but is doing fine work in an unfortunately crowded period.

The only new threat to the race is Simon Baker, who has the benefit of being well-liked, extremely charming, and starring on the season’s biggest hit. The Mentalist is the highest-rated new show of the year, so Baker could follow in Laurie’s footsteps and break into the category. On the other hand, he’s never been nominated before, and it could be an example of the Emmys and the viewers not quite lining up.

Predictions for Lead Actor in a Drama

• Simon Baker (”The Mentalist”)
• Gabriel Byrne (”In Treatment”)
• Bryan Cranston (”Breaking Bad”)
• Michael C. Hall (”Dexter”)
• Jon Hamm (”Mad Men”)
• Hugh Laurie (”House”)

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Predictions

Like the Lead Actor race, Lead Actress in a Comedy Series category isn’t particularly deep, although it’s got a bit more room for surprise. Not too much will be different from last year, where the category was a runaway victory for Tina Fey, but there’s one new face and a few old faces that could theoretically enter into the Emmy scramble depending on how the popular vote turns out.

Fey is a lock to return, likely alongside Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Mary-Louise Parker who continue to give strong performance and continue to have a lot of pedigree with voters. The other three slots could be filled by other returning nominees Christina Applegate and America Ferrera, but Applegate’s show has been canceled and Ferrera’s show might as well have been with its anemic ratings. However, both actresses are integral to the appeal of their show, and past nominations can only help you in a popular vote driven system.

Very likely to take one of the spots is Toni Colette, whose multi-faceted performance as Tara and her three alternate personalities on United States of Tara is what makes the show possible – her supporting cast is strong, but the way she pulls off both a struggling wife and mother and a male Vietnam war veteran who won’t stop sexually harassing women is the show’s most valuable asset, and she stands a legitimate chance at taking this award.

Amy Poehler garnered a nomination last year in the Supporting Actress category for Saturday Night Live, so there’s a chance that she could be back for her role in Parks and Recreation. The question is whether or not the low-buzz comedy, that never quite caught on and which didn’t particularly know how to handle Poehler’s character, made enough of an impact for Poehler’s rising fame to bring her above other more seasoned competitors.

Waiting on the periphery, meanwhile, are the women of Wysteria Lane (absent from the category the last few years), plus voters could theoretically be swayed out of habit to choose Debra Messing and Megan Mullaly without realizing that their respective shows were, you know, The Starter Wife and In the Motherhood. There’s also the potential for Sarah Silverman to break into the category, although this happening in a year that doesn’t involve songs about fornicating with Matt Damon isn’t likely.

Predictions for Lead Actress in a Comedy

• Christina Applegate (”Samantha Who”)
• Toni Colette (”United States of Tara”)
• Tina Fey (”30 Rock”)
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus (”The New Adventures of Old Christine”)
• Mary-Louise Parker (”Weeds”)
• Amy Poehler (”Parks and Recreation”)

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Predictions

There is no category at the Emmys that will be less contentious in terms of deciding the nominees than this one, where a number of current favourites, a few old favourites, and one newcomer are going to duke it out: there’s six slots available, and I’d tend to argue that there’s really only seven contenders, making for a disappointing wakeup call for one individual.

Returning to the category will be four of five of last year’s nominees: Lee Pace rode a lot of popular support for Pushing Daisies last year, but shows that were canceled in December aren’t going to make it to the Emmys nine months later. This leaves Charlie Sheen, Steve Carell, Tony Shalhoub and winner Alec Baldwin, a competitive group (although my money’s still on Baldwin).

The two remaining spots are really divided between three people. First, you have previous favourites Zach Braff and David Duchovony. In the latter case, Duchovony was expected to get a nomination last year but failed to make the category; if the voters were supportive of him but the panels didn’t like his morally corrupt character on Californication, he could make it in this time around. Braff, meanwhile, got a tearful sendoff on Scrubs this season, and his fame coupled with the show’s return in quality could make him a contender (if not the show itself, which was off the radar for too long).

They’re likely duking it out for one spot, however, since Jim Parsons is the talk of the category. I’m not sure if he’ll be able to beat out Carell and Baldwin, but Parsons has been delivering an absolutely amazing performance on The Big Bang Theory, equally broad and nuanced in a way that indicates a real talent. The show around him is rarely as good as his ability, but the way he manages to bring humanity to this cold and unfeeling character is noticeable even for non-fans of the show, a quality that makes him a definite dark horse and a likely nominee (he’s announcing the nominees, after all).

This all doesn’t leave much room for even any other competitors: while I could cheer for Zachary Levi, Chuck was definitely a critics’ darling more than it was an industry darling, and outside of a left-field guest star nod for Chevy Chase the show won’t connect with voters.

Predictions for Lead Actor in a Comedy

• Alec Baldwin (”30 Rock”)
• Steve Carell (”The Office”)
• David Duchovony (”Californication”)
• Jim Parsons (”The Big Bang Theory”)
• Tony Shalhoub (”Monk”)
• Charlie Sheen (”Two and a Half Men”)